Some British politicians have recently hinted at denying Irish citizens their right to decide in a border poll whether Ireland should be unified. In particular, leading politicians from both the Labor and Conservative parties have made statements which effectively would either delay the holding of a border poll indefinitely, or set the bar so high that it would have no chance of ever passing.
First, Keir Starmer, leader of the Labor Party, made a shocking statement in advance of his party’s convention in October. As reported in the Irish Echo (Oct. 11), when asked about a border poll Starmer replied “It’s not even on the horizon.” Equally troubling, he said he would campaign for the north of Ireland to remain in the UK if there ever were a border poll.
Starmer is likely to be the next Prime Minister of the UK and by early 2025, as Labour is holding a stable 20-point lead in the polls. His country has dragged the EU through nasty, contentious negotiations over the border issue which has poisoned EU-UK relationships for the past seven years.
Starmer is perceived as being more accommodating and Europe-friendly than any of the Tories. He has made overtures to the European Union that he would like to improve relations and move closer to cooperation on various issues. Yet, at the same time that he professes better relationships, Starmer signals that he wants to keep the border issue in the headlines.
Steve Baker.
On the heels of Starmer’s ill-conceived remark, Tory Northern Ireland Minister Steven Baker, on October 23, proposed that a “super-majority” i.e. 60%, should be required for Northern Ireland to leave the Empire. Addressing the semiannual meeting of the British Irish Parliamentary Assembly in Kildare, Baker added: “Would anyone here seriously want a 50 percent plus one united Ireland result in Northern Ireland?”
Baker’s statement was so outrageous that even Irish Times columnist Michael McDowell, no friend of nationalists or unification, called him on the carpet over it.
McDowell saliently points out there would have been no Belfast Agreement if a super-majority would be required for Irish unity. “The idea that a minority of 42 per cent of voters could in perpetuity keep 58 per cent of Northern Ireland voters within the United Kingdom against their wishes is, frankly, grotesque.”
Apparently Mr. Baker indeed holds such a “grotesque,” undemocratic belief that minority unionists should continue to rule the North ad infinitum, no matter what the people say. Given the brutal and discriminatory manner in which unionists have misruled the North for a century, Baker’s suggestion should set off alarm bells among peace builders and equal justice advocates everywhere.
Consider that Mr. Baker was among the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for Brexit. Baker chaired the rabid anti-European “European Research Group” of MPs who drove the most extreme manifestation of Brexit. Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by 56-44% but was dragged out because Baker’s forces voted for Brexit by a narrow majority of 52-48%. Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster for the UK economically and reputationally.
Against all of this recent history, Baker now expects us to believe that he has seen the light and the lesson from Brexit is that a “mere” majority should not carry the day.
Baker’s statement is also notable in that it includes the phony “straw man” scenario disingenuously posed by enemies of unification that 50% “plus one” should not carry the day. Aside from the antidemocratic message of this, it is plainly not the least bit credible. No election anywhere has ever resulted in 50% plus one vote overcoming a 50% minus one vote. The likelihood of such a result is literally zero. The argument is deliberately alarmist, inflammatory, and inconceivable.
Not only does Baker now propose that the democratic majority should not rule, but also he hypocritically propounds that a small political state that wants to take leave of its membership in a large entity has no right to do so. Apparently, in his mind, little England has the right to leave the largest economic bloc in world history, but the same rule doesn’t allow Northern Ireland to leave a downward spiraling economy in Britain.
Baker and Starmer should respect the wording of the agreement their government agreed to in 1998. The GFA is unequivocal, repeatedly affirming that a simple “majority” of voters shall decide the issue of unity. It provides that a poll shall be held “if at any time it appears likely...that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland." Additional affirming provisions specify that the participants will “recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status....if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland,” Parliament shall give effect thereto.
Starmer’s and Baker’s statements taken together should sound the alarm for all who are dedicated to the GFA. Whether Baker took his cue from Starmer is not known, but these two statements, coming so close together from leading politicians of different parties who are entering an election campaign, are of one piece, too similar to dismiss as mere coincidence. Rather, they may foreshadow the start of a British effort to deny Irish people their right to a border poll – ever!!
It has been rhetorically asked why a member of the British Government consider such an undemocratic position that would undermine the Good Friday Agreement? The answer is manifold. First, Baker and his cohorts are irredeemable imperialists still living in a Nineteenth-Century fantasy world of occupied colonies.
Second, the UK itself is not a truly democratic country. It has not respected the democratic decision of Northern Ireland voters to remain in the EU, and, most egregiously, the British Government enables a minority party to deny democratic government in Northern Ireland.
Third, despite lip service, the British government has undermined the GFA continuously since 1998. It has never honored its obligations under the GFA and its progeny the Stormont House Agreement and the New Decade, New Approach Agreement. For 25 years the UK has stonewalled legacy investigations, the mandate for an Irish language Act, the promise of a Bill of Rights, and the provision for a referendum on Irish self-determination.
The noxious Amnesty Act passed by Parliament on September 6, which was opposed by every political party in Northern Ireland, is the latest manifestation of its disdain for the GFA and democracy.
These execrable utterances by two of Britain’s leading politicians serve as a stark reminder that the fight to protect the GFA is a never-ending struggle against the forces of British hegemony. It will require ongoing vigilance by Irish Americans, and all who embrace the promises of the GFA to ensure its fulfillment.
Peter Kissel is National President of the Irish American Unity Conference
