February 16, 2011
By Staff Reporter
This time six months ago, when hopes were also running high that the political stalemate might be broken, there was a tendency in certain quarters to talk up the prospects of the IRA carrying out the so-called “act of completion” being demanded of it from the British and Irish governments.
This time round, every one is being tightlipped. While they are expressing optimism, on and off the record the briefings are uniformly low-key about the prospects of a breakthrough. Caution is the word. Neither London nor Dublin wants another failure, one that could damage relationships between them and the parties as well as seriously undermining the credibility of the entire enterprise.
For the last week or more, the leaders of Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party have been emerging from their talking sessions to testify to a new level of engagement. President Bush’s special envoy to Northern Ireland, Richard Haass, who has been taking part in the talks, has seconded this assessment by describing the talks as being of a “higher quality” than anything he has witnessed.
Undoubtedly, this constitutes another hopeful sign. Meaningful engagement can only occur when people are exploring the important issues that divide them, and pushing forward toward their resolution. We know what those core issues are: the IRA agreeing to end paramilitary activities, the Unionists giving guarantees about the stability of the institutions, the British moving forward on demilitarization, and so forth. It was failure to resolve the first issue that ended the talks last April. We can only suppose that the parties are closer to settling it this time around or they would not be so quietly hopeful. If that is indeed the case, then truly, and without exaggeration, we might begin to talk of a turning point in Irish history.
However, there are potential problems. The date of Nov. 13 for the election has had to be abandoned, a bad sign. If things had been going that well, then it should have been possible to confirm it as poll day. It leaves little room for maneuver. No one wants a winter election, which is almost certain to ensure a low turnout. That in turn ensures that only the committed show up to the polls, and they tend toward the anti-agreement side of the fence.
Then there is the upcoming Ulster Unionist Party annual conference this weekend. Party leader David Trimble has many enemies who will not be happy to see his policies bearing fruit, and might take the opportunity to try to derail the process. It will also be crucial as to how he sells the deal to his party: any hint of “we beat the IRA” boasting and the things could go bust. But where there is real hope there is no need for hype.