February 16, 2011
By Staff Reporter
By Anne Cadwallader
BELFAST — David Trimble’s leadership of the Ulster Unionist leader could be doomed this week if the DUP’s Rev. Willie McCrea wins a vital by-election in South Antrim. The UUP leader is in a double bind, as even if his party’s candidate wins, he will face more internal opposition.
The by-election, to be held on Thursday with a result due late that night, was caused by the death of the "Mr. Anonymous" of Ulster Unionism, Clifford Forsythe. The election is being seen as a critical indicator of the support, or lack of it, within unionism for the Good Friday agreement.
It may also be an important indicator of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the SDLP and Sinn Fein. Both have waged a tough campaign for votes, with the smaller party claiming it is going to do better than even before in the constituency, although neither has a realistic chance of winning the seat.
There is considerable panic in the Trimble wing of the UUP at the prospect of the anti-agreement McCrea winning in a constituency with a reputation for being solid UUP.
Even if Trimble’s own candidate, the stern David Burnside, is the victor, Trimble’s leadership could face a slow death.
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Both McCrea and Burnside are opposed to the agreement and only disagree over tactics. If McCrea wins, Trimble could be out by Christmas. If Burnside gets the seat, the anti-agreement knife may be twisted within his own party until Trimble either quits or is pushed.
Burnside, for his part, damns Trimble by faint praise. "I admire David’s many good qualities and if he delivers credible decommissioning and the end of paramilitary organizations, I will be happy to say I was a merchant of doom and he took the risk. I fear, however, David will prove to have been wrong," he said recently.
As for the agreement itself, he has said: "I voted yes in the referendum on the agreement on the basis that anyone linked to a terrorist organization who threatened violence would be excluded from government. That has not happened and as a party we have lost the high ground by backing away from our ‘no guns no government’ policy."