Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

Brennan was referring to the apparent end to recent speculation and reports that Ahern would be taking up the plum job that is the presidency of the European Commission in place of the outgoing Romano Prodi.

But as the hours ticked down to the end of Ireland's rotating six-month presidency of the now 25-member union, it became increasingly apparent that, from Ahern's perspective, the commission presidency was literally heading south and would end up in the hands of his Portuguese counterpart, Jose Barroso.

"Mr. Ahern will now face the job of rebuilding the Fianna Fáil party after its worst ever results in the recent local and European elections," the Independent reported.

In a television interview that coincided with last weekend's visit to Ireland by President Bush, Ahern himself said he wanted to finish up his own political agenda and still had a lot of work to do, particularly in relation to Northern Ireland.

As part of his refocusing on a domestic agenda, Ahern is now expected to hold meetings with top Fianna Fáil party officials to plan a party political comeback that must take firm hold in advance of the next general election, which must take place by 2007 at the latest.

But it could occur sooner if the now strained governing coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats founders, or if Ahern, or a possible successor, decides that an early election will be better for Fianna Fáil than would be the case if the party decided to hang on to the very end to its second successive term of office.

Reports indicate that Ahern will be licking his party's domestic political wounds over the summer and will set about overhauling the party's base of operations in September.

This process will involve top-level discussions at party leadership level and also a "blitz" through various constituencies in which Ahern will seek to rally the party grassroots, all in an effort to face up to the threat posed by rival parties, among those a surging Sinn Féin.

But while Ahern will now be expected to put in many miles and hours in the rebuilding of his party's strength, he cannot expect an open-ended guarantee that he will lead his party into the next general election

If a week is a long time in politics, three years is an eternity in Fianna Fáil politics.

But for the time being at least, Ahern's leadership would appear to be safe and, in fact, strengthened by what many see as his deft handling of the European presidency -- a task that many in Fianna Fáil also see now as a drain on the party leadership's energies and a central reason for the party's poor performances in the recent local and European elections.

"Obviously we did poorly in the elections given our usual level of performance. This was a defeat for us. We acknowledge that and we'll take lessons from it," Brian Cowen, Irish foreign minister and Fianna Fáil deputy leader, said during a visit to New York last week.

Cowen is now the focus of considerable interest in that he is both the most likely successor to Ahern and, as No. 2 man in the party, the route through which the ambitions of all others must pass.

For his own part, Cowen seemed to be content with the leadership as it is, although a change in job for him as part of the anticipated fall cabinet reshuffle is a distinct possibility.

"You never say never in politics. . . . But there is no prospect of a change on the immediate horizon," Cowen said in relation to both his ambitions and Ahern's leadership.

The view of political observers in Dublin, meanwhile, is that Ahern will seek to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election and secure enough seats to enable the party to enter coalition with the party of its choosing.

This will, in all likelihood, not be the Progressive Democrats. The partner might be Labor, a return to a former arrangement last seen in the days of the Albert Reynolds Fianna Fáil and Dick Spring-led Labor Party.

It might even be with Sinn Féin.

Either way, Fianna Fáil seems clearly intent on making a move to the political center and away from the right-leaning arrangement favored by the Progressive Democrats.

"Ahern wants to lead Fianna Fáil to a hat trick of election wins, then quit before he is 60 and hand the leadership over to someone else," said one seasoned political observer of Irish politics.

Ahern will be 54 on Sept. 12.

Regardless of whether Ahern continues to lead, there is also the question as to who will continue to work in the cabinet under him.

If the cabinet is to be turned upside down in the fall -- the Sunday Business Post pointed to expectations of a "massive clear out" -- the biggest casualty is expected to be the current finance minister, Charlie McCreevy.

The paper reported that nervous Fianna Fáil backbenchers in the parliamentary party wanted to see McCreevy move to a European job and be replaced by Brian Cowen, "who has a better rapport with them."

The finance portfolio is generally viewed as the last steppingstone before the taoiseach's job and Cowen, who is 10 years younger than Ahern, would presumably then be in prime position to relieve Ahern while still being at a comparatively young political age.

"There are no backbenchers coming up that might challenge Ahern," said a well-placed Dublin-based source.

"In fact they are telling him [Ahern] that they want him to stay on."